A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
